The employment report for September was of interest because many thought with the ending of the enhanced unemployment benefits and with kids back to school, that it would lead to more people entering the workforce. Instead, the report showed employment continuing to struggle with the trend now slower than it was in the early summer months.
So, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%, it did so in part because people left the workforce, the opposite of what was expected. But the report wasn’t all bad as those employed increased by over 500,000.
For the week ahead, does this brings us to the Federal Reserve? Many thought a strong jobs report would cement the Fed’s taper come November. The question now becomes was this report weak enough to post-pone the taper? It’s hard to tell so we give it 50/50 odds. For the week ahead, meeting minutes from the last Fed meeting are released which could provide additional clues on the taper timeline.
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