We made it through another week, and it was another week of positive stock returns. One of the catalysts for this prior week was international trade. With the latest trade developments, we can now sum up the U.S. economy in 4 bullet points.
When we talk markets and economy during our management meetings, we sum up the U.S. economy with three main bullet points – Moderate growth. Subdued Inflation. Dovish Fed. After the signing of the Phase 1 trade deal between U.S. and China and the Senate passing the USMCA or “New NAFTA” maybe we can add a fourth bullet point and that being reduced level of uncertainty relating to international trade. If hostilities don’t pick up on the Phase 2 U.S./China talks and we avoid a trade dispute with the European Union, the actions of this past week could result in a pickup in CEO confidence, international trade, and global growth.
For the week ahead, the impeachment proceedings continue in the Senate. The market has paid no attention to this and we expect that to continue. What the market will pay attention to is the European Central Bank which meets on Thursday. What’s their outlook? What’s their plan when it comes to interest rates? And do they look for government spending to help them out?
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